For the first time in the history of the HR Derby, we may actually see the participants get ultra-competitive about winning the event.

Why? Well, this year there is a grand prize of $1 million.

The participants are highlighted by a defending MVP and a rookie powerhouse from the NY Mets, along with six other participants.

Here is a list of the 2019 HR Derby participants and and their odds to win, courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook:

HR Derby Odds To Win (Updated)

Late breaking news hit Sunday night that Christian Yelich would not be participating in the HR Derby due to back issues. Matt Champan from the Oakland A’s has replaced Yelich. Chapman has been installed as 8/1 or +800 to win derby in Cleveland Monday night.

PLAYERSWILLIAM HILL NJDRAFTKINGS NJSUGARHOUSE NJ
Josh Bell375300300
Pete Alonso450400400
Vlad Guerrero Jr.500450450
Matt Chapman700800800
Joc Pederson550800800
Carlos Santana70010001000
Alex Bregman900900900
Ronald Acuna Jr.100011001100
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In case you missed it, ESPN is now only referencing odds from Caesars Sportsbook on SportsCenter or any show in general. This is due to an agreement reached back in May.

HOME RUN DERBY FORMAT & RULES

Eight players will compete head-to-head with one another, with the 1 and 8, 2 and 7, 3 and 6, and 4 and 5 seeds matching up in tournament style play. The 2019 HR Derby is a single-elimination tournament that consists of just three rounds. Progressive Field in Cleveland is not exactly hitter friendly, ranking #19 on ESPN’s MLB Park Factors for 2019.

(1) Matt Chapman vs. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. (8)
(2) Pete Alonso vs. Carlos Santana (7)
(3) Josh Bell vs. Ronald Acuna, Jr. (6)
(4) Alex Bregman vs. Joc Pederson (5)

WHO WILL WIN THE HR DERBY?

1. Christian Yelich: He leads the league in home runs at 31

2. Pete Alonso: With his rookie strength, 20 of Alonso’s 28 home runs have gone for over 400-feet.

3. Josh Bell: Like Alonso, Bell hits the ball far, but we’re talking about 450+ or in one instance, over 470-feet.

4. Alex Bregman: He has experience from competing last year and has a pull-heavy swing, which bodes well for this kind of competition.

5. Joc Pederson: Should have won back in 2015 as a rookie, but Todd Frazier narrowly won out after his brother delivered pitches before the previous ball ended its descent.

6. Ronald Acuna Jr.: He is just blessed with pure power and can hit the ball to all fields.

7. Carlos Santana: The All-Star game is in Cleveland this year and Santana is the hometown guy. Maybe the crowd can rally around him?

8. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: He may only have eight home runs since being called up, but six of the eight have been over 400-feet.

BETTING LONG-SHOT PICK

After looking at all the odds and examining each players’ strengths in regards to this tournament, it is easy to pick someone like Bell, who has the best odds.

After watching last years’ tournament, Bregman caught my eye. He came out of no where and lost by one home run in his head to head match-up with Kyle Schwarber.

Bregman has the worst odds, but after his performance last year, his 23 home runs last year and his swing which is great for a tournament like this. Bregman is my pick to win this year.

The ultimate underdog, Bregman at 12-1 odds is your long-shot that could make the 2019 HR Derby quite the ROI for bettors.

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