The first 2 weeks of the 2019 MLB season has been filled with some surprises and plenty of Bryce Harper highlights. The defending World Series champs look to have some serious pitching issues. Thus the Red Sox odds to win the World Series have quickly moved from +600 to +900. BetNewJersey.com readers should not be shocked at this development as the Red Sox bullpen was targeted as major concern for 2019.
Latest World Series Odds NJ
|BOS Red Sox||600||900|
|CHI White Sox||5000||10000|
|TOR Blue Jays||6600||10000|
Boston Red Sox (+900) World Series Odds
One of the biggest surprises, or shockers, depending on your stance on the Red Sox, has been their 3-8 start to the season. For a team that is not only coming off a 108 win season in 2018 but are the reigning World Series Champions is shocking to say the least. The Red Sox started the season at +700 to win the World Series so the slow start has moved the odds a bit. Realistically, where do they stand at this juncture?
The irony of this mess has been the role reversal the pitching staff has taken. The starting rotation was supposed to be the anchor of this team while the bullpen was going to be the mess that everyone worried about. Instead, the starting staff sports a league-worst 8.57 ERA, a 1.86 WHIP, second worst in the league and 42 strikeouts, which ranks 23rd. The bullpen meanwhile has a 3.61 ERA (20th) a 1.20 WHIP (20th) and 47 strikeouts (3rd). One would imagine these numbers would even out on both sides, as the bullpen could rise and the starters will lower.
The offense isn’t where it needs to be either but it’s been improving over their last few games. With the improvement, the Red Sox have seen their average runs per game jump up to 4.1 runs, which currently ranks them 17th in the league. The 8.1 hits per game they average are better than the league average slightly, sitting in 14th overall. If the Red Sox can boast of only one aspect of their team, it’s the strength of their lineup. It’s only a matter of time before this Sox start mashing the ball and an upcoming five-game homestand could be the answer.
Getting the Red Sox at +900 odds still feels like a good bet. With so many people down on the team right now, this feels like a classic buy low situation with panic ensuing just 11 games in.
Philadelphia Phillies World Series Odds (+900)
Of the top five teams the DraftKings Sportsbook, three of those teams are in the American League. The two teams from the National League are the Dodgers (+700) and Phillies. While the Dodgers are looking like early favorites, at least from the National League, the Phillies draw plenty of appeal as well. As of this writing Monday evening, they stand with a 6-2 record and are putting up a ton of runs.
As of Monday, the Phillies are averaging 6.2 runs per game, which is the fifth highest in the league. Their power has been a huge reason for this, as the .215 team ISO currently ranks sixth in the league. This is going to be the bread and butter for this teams success with the additions they made over the offseason with the likes of Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura. Citizens Bank Park has always been one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league and getting these players in that atmosphere should do wonders for their numbers offensively and for the team as a whole.
Where the Phillies could end up faltering is in their starting rotation. After Aaron Nola, the Phillies have a lot of average pitchers the rest of the way. Jake Arrieta is better than average but he’s going to need another season of a sub-30% FB rate to keep his numbers at Citizens Bank Park from inflating. Zach Eflin has also gotten off to a really solid start but it’s really a question if it’s sustainable. With so many pitchers in this rotation that are questionable like Eflin, it truly feels like it could be the factor that holds back the Phillies.
Personally, I wouldn’t mind waiting a little bit to see if these odds shift a bit. I don’t think the Phillies are going to win it all this year but I think waiting it out could open up a bit more value.
Seattle Mariners World Series Odds (+3700)
Once upon a time, no one wanted to give the Mariners the time of day until one day, they went on to sport a 9-2 record.
It’s amazing to see this run the Mariners have started the season with as they’re officially off to the best start in franchise history. Thanks in large part to averaging 7.7 runs per game while also having the second largest run differential in the league at +29. For a team that is at the beginning of a rebuild, they’re playing what feels like they’re three years ahead of schedule.
While the odds have tumbled since their start, I’m still not buying it. Yes, the start they’ve gotten off to is undeniable but I really question how sustainable this really is. As I’ve mentioned in past articles, the bullpen they have is not a good one. While their bullpen sports a 4.42 ERA, which ranks 11th in the league, the 5.8 BB/9 ranks amongst one of the highest at eighth in the league. The Mariners are also allowing five runs per game, which is the 12th highest in the league. Once this offense cools a bit, that’s a run total that is going to be hard to overcome, especially with a shaky bullpen.
While some people might be experiencing FOMO and grabbing them at this odds while they can, I think they’ll be in for some big regression moving forward. While the AL West doesn’t exactly have powerhouse teams to overcome, the A’s are going to be a tough consistent offense to overcome over the long haul.
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