One of the most exciting times of the baseball offseason is when NJ sportsbooks release their MLB Teams Over-Under Win Totals. Die-hard sports bettors and MLB fans alike immediately check to see what the oddsmakers think of each MLB team for the upcoming season.
MLB Team Win Totals can move quickly based upon injury news and free agent signings. The Phillies opened at DraftKings Sportsbook with an 86.5 over-under wins total. After signing Bryce Harper, the total jumped to 89.5 wins at most NJ Sports Betting sites.
BetNewJersey.com writer Steve Buchanan provides his predictions below on 2019 MLB Team season win totals.
Red Sox 95.5
Blue Jays 76.5
White Sox 74.5
MLB TEAMS OVER-UNDER SEASON WINS PREDICTIONS 2019
Chicago Cubs Over-Under 88.5 Wins?
This total caught my eye almost immediately as I was looking over the entire league. In 2018, this Cubs team had a 95-68 record and is bringing back almost the entire core for this season. So for them to go under 88.5, I think they would have to be downright unlucky with injuries. Barring that fact, I think this one ends up being an easy over and because of two key players being ready for the 2019 season.
Kris Bryant was limited to 102 games last season, which in turn limited him at the plate. Bryant hit .272/.374/.460 with just 13 home runs and 52 RBI. A huge difference from the 31.3 home runs and 91.3 RBI he’s averaged in his three full seasons prior to 2018. A healthy Bryant batting near the top of the lineup makes a massive difference and a ripple effect to the hitters below him. Bryant is an MVP candidate any year he’s on the field, so getting him back will help sustain the win total.
Yu Darvish is also reportedly healthy this season after being limited to just eight starts in 2018. A fresh start was needed for Darvish and this could be the year he settles in. Even in a shortened season, Darvish still owned 27.2 K% through 40 innings with an 11% swing-and-miss rate. Joining a rotation of Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester, Cole Hamels and Jose Quintana, the Cubs boast a strong rotation once again.
PICK: OVER 88.5
Cincinnati Reds Over-Under 78.5 Wins?
I’ll admit – this is one total I’ve REALLY been on the fence about. It’s set almost perfectly as the Reds should be in line for a big improvement from their 67-95 record in 2018. The Reds were very busy this offseason and made a number of moves that have shored up their lineup. Is it enough to push them for an over?
Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Tanner Roark, Sonny Gray. These players are amongst the many names that will sport the Reds uniform when Opening Day rolls around. Clearly, the lineup gets a massive boost in power with Kemp and Puig, especially moving from the pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium to the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. This team has a legitimate shot of boasting at least four players to exceed 20 home runs, all of whom would be in the heart of the lineup. While their offense will be streaky at times, they have the potential to score in bunches.
The biggest concern is the pitching staff. Yes, they have upgraded from last season. Anytime you can get rid of Homer Bailey you’re instantly better than last season. However, I think I’d be comfortable with putting a question mark next to each pitcher in this rotation from 1-5. This is where I really become conflicted on the win total of 78.5. Sonny Gray was a shell of himself last season, Luis Castillo still hasn’t quite figured it out on a consistent basis in the majors and Tanner Roark is going to struggle to keep the ball in the park.
In conclusion, I think the lineup can help carry what likely will be an average at best rotation. The Reds can certainly bank on plenty of power coming from the heart of their lineup that even if the rotation struggles, they have enough to stay competitive.
PICK: OVER 78.5
Seattle Mariners Over-Under 72.5 Wins?
An O/U of 72.5 feels like a lot of games for a team that has been almost completely gutted from top to bottom. Not to mention that process is expected to continue as the season rolls on as the Mariners’ ultimate goal is to get younger. So when you see someone like Edwin Encarnacion on your team at the fresh age of 36, one has to assume he’ll be on the chopping block sooner rather than later.
One area the Mariners will really look different this season is the bullpen. During the offseason, they unloaded closer Edwin Diaz, Alex Colome, Juan Nicasio and James Pazos. With this in mind, it’s interesting to look at how successful the Mariners were in close games. 82 games were decided by two runs or fewer. Of those games, the Mariners went on to sport a 54-28 record. In games decided by one run or less, the Mariners were 36-21. Without a reliable bullpen at their disposal, it’s going to be extremely difficult to even come close to those type of numbers.
With a lineup that will likely look very different from the one they run out on Opening Day to when the season ends, I find it quite difficult that they’ll exceed the 72.5 win total. This is an easy under for me.
PICK: UNDER 72.5
Kansas City Royals Over-Under 69.5 Wins?
Have you seen that lineup the Royals are projected to roll out this season? Before you take a gander, please be advised it is NSFW and to hide children and small animals. For a team that only won 58 games last season, it’s hard to imagine they’ll improve upon that total by 12 games. Not to mention they’ll be without Salvador Perez, who has been lost for the season to Tommy John surgery. Perez only hit .235/.274/.439 last season but did hit 27 home runs and knocked in 80 RBI. That’s a ton of power to lose for a team that won’t have much, to begin with.
While the Royals didn’t lose any key contributors (aside from Perez), they didn’t exactly make any splashes either. Sure, Billy Hamilton will contribute on the base paths and defensively, but it’s not a game changer. Adalberto Mondesi will be a nice boost to the lineup playing full time in the majors and Whit Merrifield projects to be in line for another solid season. After that, it’s a lot of question marks and “has potential” type players. As I mentioned, this team will also struggle to hit for power, as I’m finding a hard time finding players who could hit 20+ home runs aside from potentially Mondesi.
Their starting rotation is amongst the worst in the league. This team doesn’t have anything close to an ace. Brad Keller will likely be the closest they’ll get but even he doesn’t have anything to overpower hitters. Aside from Keller, we’re likely seeing Danny Duffy, Jake Junis, Ian Kennedy and likely a carousel of options at SP5. When the Royals need a “stop” it’s going to be extremely difficult to have a pitcher to utilize and earn them a win. If your staff can’t keep you in the game and you don’t have the power to get back some of those runs, well, what are we doing here?
PICK UNDER 69.5
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