The key is to find or isolate certain NFL public bets that could be based on “recency bias” or potential trap games for sports bettors. To be clear, simply fading the public is not a magic method for winning long term. Monitoring NFL public bets or consensus picks should part of your overall strategy, not your only reason for backing a team.
Let’s take a look at the Week 12 Public Betting numbers on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Notable Games with Consensus (Spread)
|Team||Spread||% Handle||% Bets|
There are five underdogs that carry a consensus on the spread, and there are four favorites that carry at least 81% of the handle.
The Lions, Ravens, Steelers, and Falcons are the favorites that have the most liability for DraftKings Sportsbook in terms of handle. Oddly, the Steelers only have 70% of the bets though, so big money has come in on Pittsburgh.
Of these five underdogs, the Seahawks, Dolphins, and Packers are the only three that carry a consensus in terms of betting handle, but the Colts and Giants carry over 50% of the total bets. It’s a weird discrepancy, but it makes sense for the Giants given the likelihood of hometown bettors. As for the Colts, it’s just 51%, but it is quite notable with a 8% difference between handle and bet.
Seattle Seahawks 88%
The Seahawks are 1.5 point dogs in Philadelphia, in what is very close to a must-win game for the Eagles. Both 88% of the handle and the bets are on Seattle. Given the Eagles are home, this spread is only 1.5, but the Seahawks are one of the better teams in the NFC at 8-2 and have an MVP candidate at quarterback with Russell Wilson.
Miami Dolphins 71%
The Dolphins are not a good football team, but bettors do not believe the Browns are 10.5 points better. That is a lot of points, and the Dolphins have been much more competitive with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. Sure, they only have two wins but they have come within 10.5 points in four of their last six games.
Green Bay Packers 67%
On Sunday Night Football, we could have a NFC Championship preview between the Packers and the Niners. It’s a bit surprising that the Packers are consensus picks this week, especially playing on the road. With that being said, the Niners are the favorite, but just with three points. 67% of the money is on the Packers.
Notable Games with Consensus (Total)
|Team||Total (Over/Under)||% Handle||% Bets|
Bettors love to bet the overs, that is for sure.
The overs on the Dolphins/Browns and Packers/Niners games are the only two games with 89% or more of the handle on totals, but the Dolphins and Browns only have 70% of their bets on the over, but 90% of the handle on that over. Heavy money on that over, for sure.
Another massive discrepancy is the Cowboys/Patriots over 46. 77% of the money is on the over, but only 42% of the tickets. That is insane. That means for every $10 bet, $7.70 is bet on the over. But for every 10 bets, only 4.2 have come on the over. This means one thing…heavy money on that over.
Packers vs. Niners Over 46.5
This is quite a popular game this week, as there is a lot of money on the Packers and the over. Bettors clearly think Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense will be able to score on the terrific 49ers defense, and the over makes sense in this matchup given the best way to beat Green Bay is to run the football, and the Niners have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL. With 89% of the money on over 46.5 this week, bettors expect to see a lot of points.
Dolphins vs. Browns Over 44.5
The Miami/Cleveland game has the highest difference between over and under bets this week, with 90% betting over 44.5. Bettors do not have faith in either defense, and for good reason.
Miami just gave up 37 points to the Buffalo Bills, and the Browns are allowing 22.8 points per game this season. Just taking the averages (with Miami allowing 30.5 per game), that comes to 53.3 points per game, which is nine points higher than the total.
There are five underdogs that have the majority of the bets on them this week.
|Team||Spread||% Handle||% Bets|
Only three underdogs have the majority of the betting handle, but oddly five have the majority of the bets. This means some heavy money came in on the other side.
For example, 61% of the bets are on the Giants, but only 41% of the money came in. This means likely most bets on the Giants were smaller, as noted earlier.
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