NFL Upset Picks: Eagles +8 In Must Win Situation vs. Saints

by | Nov 16, 2018 | betting picks


Though I only managed to produce a 2-3 record ATS with last week’s rabid dog selections, I still managed to produce a little profit with both the Browns and Bills cashing nice sized money line tickets. Cleveland cruised to the 28-16 outright win as 5.5 point dogs, while Buffalo curb stomped the division rival Jets 41-10 in their best offensive showing of the season. The Detroit Lions and Cincinnati Bengals never had a shot, while the Jaguars ultimately ended up pushing in Indianapolis but did have a shot of winning the game late.

That’s all you can ask for when dog hunting in the NFL. Keep it close and give yourself a shot. Let’s see if we can’t peg a few more of those in Week 11!

Philadelphia Eagles +8’, +306 @ New Orleans Saints

It’s gotten to the point the defending champs must start fighting for their playoff lives. No ifs, ands or buts about it. After dropping a sickening 27-20 decision to Dallas at home last week, the Eagles sit a game under .500 overall and in third place within the NFC East looking up to the Redskins and Cowboys. Even though Washington looks to be one of the weaker division leaders in the league, there isn’t much more room for error.

As for the Saints, they return home fat and happy after throttling the Bengals on the road; much to my chagrin, and are now installed overinflated favorites on the current betting lines. The point spread for this tilt was around a field goal on the early-season look ahead lines. There’s value on the Eagles. Now all they have to do is take advantage of it!


Jacksonville Jaguars +5, +203 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are shaping up to be sportsbooks’ biggest exposure of Week 11 in their grudge match with the Jaguars. After taking Cam and company out behind the woodshed on Thursday Night Football, the betting public has hammered visiting Pittsburgh like they know the final score of the game.

Over 80 percent of the tickets written at one of the more highly esteemed NJ sportsbooks are lined in yellow and black. Even so, the betting line has gone the way of the host Jaguars. That’s a major red flag for me. The Steelers have played against the norm of stinking it up on the road this season; negative regression is in order!



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Tennessee Titans +1, +100 @ Indy Colts

I’m still kicking myself for not including the Titans in this piece last week. I went back and forth about adding them. Ultimately, I ended up backing them against the Patriots, but not nearly big enough as I should. I’m really starting to buy into what Vrabel and his staff got going on with this team. The defense was stifling in a handling of the Cowboys in Big D on MNF, and then it held the Brady Bunch to its lowest scoring output of the season last week.

Marcus Mariota is finally healthy and Derrick Henry is finally running like the running back that won the Heisman Trophy. The Colts have been a nice story thus far, but they’re not ready to compete for the AFC South title. Tennessee clearly is after playing runner up a year ago, and I firmly expect them to be the chalk to win the division in short order.

Denver Broncos +7, +281 @ LA Chargers

The Chargers own the quietest 7-2 record in the NFL. Seriously, have you heard less from a team that’s won 78 percent of its games to this point of any other season? Like the Chicago Bears, that record has been built against one of the weakest schedules of any top team. Their best win to date has come against the Titans in London before Tennessee caught fire.

They’re lucky Vrabel’s end-game gamble to go for two and the win didn’t pay off! As for Denver, it’s nothing more than an afterthought in the AFC West to this point sitting three games under .500 and losers of two straight heading out of the bye. Save for the 27-14 defeat at Baltimore, Vance Joseph’s troops have been competitive in defeat against top tier teams in the Chiefs, Texans and Rams by an average of just 4.0 points per game. They’ve owned this recent rivalry going 7-3 SU and 5-4-1 ATS over the L/10, and I think they hang in this spot as well.

Minnesota Vikings +2, +120 @ Chicago Bears

It pains me to write this one up, but I need to see more from the beloved to believe they’re ready to compete for the NFC North crown. Minnesota has proven worthy having won the division two of the last three seasons, and they enter this crucial Sunday Night Football tilt fully rested and refreshed coming off a bye. Chicago has attained its impressive 6-3 record to this point against losing teams. Against the two teams with a pulse faced, they lost a heartbreaker up in Green Bay to the Packers and got handled at home by the Patriots.

Mitchell Trubisky is about to face his stiffest test of the season. While he’s proven capable in recent weeks and looks to be another one of those young up and coming quarterbacks like Goff and Mahomes, I need to see him do it against the best of the best. Do it on Sunday night and I’ll start becoming a believer. I’m paying to see that happen however!


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