Think about it this way. Sportsbooks aren’t in this industry to give money away for free. In Las Vegas, the books have not lost in a long time even for a month. Let alone a year. Therefore, the public is usually wrong (in the long run).
With that being said, the key is to find where the public will be correct and incorrect. That’s the key to being a successful bettor.
Here’s an early look at the Week 4 Public Betting numbers on DraftKings Sportsbook.
|Teams||Spread||% Handle (Spread)||% Bets (Spread)||Total Points||Money Line|
|Eagles||4||24%||37%||O 45.5 (-110)||170|
|Packers||-4||76%||63%||U 45.5 (-110)||-200|
|Redskins||3||16%||27%||O 49 (-110)||130|
|Giants||-3||84%||73%||U 49 (-110)||-148|
|Browns||7||28%||23%||O 45.5 (-110)||250|
|Ravens||-7||72%||77%||U 45.5 (-110)||-295|
|Raiders||7||18%||28%||O 45 (-110)||240|
|Colts||-7||82%||72%||U 45 (-110)||-278|
|Patriots||-7||95%||83%||O 42.5 (-110)||-315|
|Bills||7||5%||17%||U 42.5 (-110)||270|
|Chiefs||-6||97%||96%||O 54 (-110)||-275|
|Lions||6||3%||4%||U 54 (-110)||230|
|Titans||4||31%||32%||O 45.5 (-110)||170|
|Falcons||-4||69%||68%||U 45.5 (-110)||-200|
|Chargers||-16||64%||52%||O 44.5 (-110)||-835|
|Dolphins||16||36%||48%||U 44.5 (-110)||650|
|Panthers||4.5||37%||19%||O 47 (-110)||180|
|Texans||-4.5||63%||81%||U 47 (-110)||-205|
|Buccaneers||10||17%||42%||O 49.5 (-110)||360|
|Rams||-10||83%||58%||U 49.5 (-110)||-435|
|Seahawks||-5||96%||90%||O 48 (-110)||-240|
|Cardinals||5||4%||10%||U 48 (-110)||195|
|Vikings||2.5||68%||65%||O 38 (-110)||120|
|Bears||-2.5||32%||35%||U 38 (-110)||-137|
|Broncos||-3||49%||38%||U 38.5 (-110)||-165|
|Cowboys||-2.5||73%||76%||O 47 (-110)||-148|
|Saints||2.5||27%||24%||U 47 (-110)||120|
|Bengals||4||44%||39%||O 43.5 (-110)||163|
|Steelers||-4||56%||61%||U 43.5 (-110)||-200|
Top Percentages (Handle)
Team, Spread, % of Handle
Chiefs -6 97%
Seahawks -5 96%
Patriots -7 95%
On DraftKings Sportsbook, there are three games that have over 90% of the betting handle on one team.
The Chiefs are favored by six points against the Lions, and bettors are betting heavily on the road favorite this week. 97% is an extremely large number, but it makes sense given the Chiefs offense in a dome atmosphere. There is just too much speed and explosiveness on that Chiefs offense for a spread to be less than a touchdown. The public believes this, and has gone heavily on the Chiefs so far for Week 4.
The Seahawks are also on the road against a winless Arizona Cardinals team that has struggled mightily on defense. Bettors do not think Kliff Kingsbury will get his first win as a NFL head coach this week either, with a massive 96% of the money coming on on the Seahawks to cover five points. All three Seattle games have been close this season, as the Seahawks beat Cincinnati 21-20, Pittsburgh 28-26, and lost to the Saints 33-27. This is certainly a game that DraftKings Sportsbook will be liable on, but it has a better chance to go the book’s way than the Chiefs -6.
It wouldn’t be a week of NFL without the public betting on the Patriots. This week, the Pats are favored by a touchdown on the road against the Bills, and 95% of the money has come in on Bill Belichick and the Pats. The Bills are 3-0, and it’s really the only reason this is not a double-digit spread. The Pats did not cover last week with a massive three-score spread, but a touchdown favorite seems correct here. In the last five games, the Pats have won by at least 12 points each time:
Top Percentages (Bets)
Team, Spread, % of Bets
Chiefs -6 96%
Seahawks -5 90%
Two of the three games with more than 90% of the handle also have 90% or more of the total bets. The Chiefs and Seahawks have been heavily bet on in Week 4 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
After these two, the Patriots have 83% of the tickets, Texans have 81% of the tickets, and the Ravens, Cowboys, Giants, and Colts are all in the 70s in terms of percentage of bets.
Only two underdogs have more than 50% of the betting handle on them.
Vikings +2.5 68%
Jaguars +3 51%
The public’s favorite underdog is the Minnesota Vikings this week, being 2.5-point dogs against a division rival, the Chicago Bears. The Vikings’ running game has been fantastic so far this season, and Mitchell Trubisky has struggled so far for the Bears. Both teams are 2-1, and Chicago has the advantage in the spread being at home. This will be one of the better games of the week, but the public is leaning heavily (for an underdog) towards the Vikes.
Only two underdogs have more than 50% of the total bets on them.
Vikings +2.5 65%
Jaguars +3 62%
The Jaguars have 62% of the tickets on them, but only 51% of the total money. This means bettors are likely betting on them, but not as much money. But what it could also mean is heavy money has come in against the Jaguars, which means some sharps may like the Broncos this week as three-point favorites.
This is a big week (so far) for DraftKings Sportsbook, as they have a lot of liability on the favorites this week. The public loves betting on favorites, as you can see.
NJ SPORTS BETTING APPS
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