Think about it this way: Sportsbooks aren’t in this industry to give money away for free. In Las Vegas, the books have not lost in a long time even for a month. Let alone a year. Therefore, the public is usually wrong (in the long run).
With that being said, the key is to find where the public will be correct and incorrect. That’s the key to being a successful bettor week in and week out.
Here’s the latest look at the Week 8 Public Betting numbers on DraftKings Sportsbook.
|Team||Spread||% Handle||% Bets||Total||% Handle||% Bets||Moneyline||% Handle||% Bets|
|WAS Redskins||-15.5||18%||24%||Over 42||71%||71%||650||12%||9%|
|MIN Vikings||15.5||82%||76%||Under 42||29%||29%||-1000||88%||91%|
|NY Jets||5.5||50%||37%||Over 41||67%||68%||195||55%||45%|
|JAX Jaguars||-5.5||50%||63%||Under 41||33%||32%||-245||45%||55%|
|NY Giants||6.5||24%||33%||Over 49.5||48%||34%||240||21%||14%|
|DET Lions||-6.5||76%||67%||Under 49.5||52%||66%||-305||79%||86%|
|PHI Eagles||1.5||43%||40%||Over 43||86%||50%||104||64%||60%|
|BUF Bills||-1.5||57%||60%||Under 43||14%||50%||-125||36%||40%|
|CIN Bengals||13.5||5%||12%||Over 48.5||57%||35%||540||3%||3%|
|LA Rams||-13.5||95%||88%||Under 48.5||43%||65%||-715||97%||97%|
|DEN Broncos||6||4%||6%||Over 43||42%||38%||225||3%||4%|
|IND Colts||-6||96%||94%||Under 43||58%||62%||-278||97%||96%|
|TB Buccaneers||2.5||59%||56%||Over 46||56%||45%||123||77%||76%|
|TEN Titans||-2.5||41%||44%||Under 46||44%||55%||-148||23%||24%|
|ARI Cardinals||10||48%||38%||Over 47.5||86%||76%||335||7%||7%|
|NO Saints||-10||52%||62%||Under 47.5||14%||24%||-435||93%||93%|
|LA Chargers||4||58%||68%||Over 40||61%||68%||170||67%||57%|
|CHI Bears||-4||42%||32%||Under 40||39%||32%||-215||33%||43%|
|CAR Panthers||5||45%||35%||Over 41.5||51%||81%||180||47%||39%|
|SF 49ers||-5||55%||65%||Under 41.5||49%||19%||-225||53%||61%|
|OAK Raiders||6.5||16%||27%||Over 51.5||68%||61%||215||15%||20%|
|HOU Texans||-6.5||84%||73%||Under 51.5||32%||39%||-275||85%||80%|
|CLE Browns||13||8%||17%||Over 46||50%||55%||480||9%||6%|
|NE Patriots||-13||92%||83%||Under 46||50%||45%||-670||91%||94%|
|GB Packers||-4.5||92%||89%||Over 47.5||64%||77%||-220||95%||88%|
|KC Chiefs||4.5||8%||11%||Under 47.5||36%||23%||180||5%||12%|
|MIA Dolphins||14.5||89%||64%||Over 43||54%||42%||600||49%||14%|
|PIT Steelers||-14.5||11%||36%||Under 43||46%||58%||-835||51%||86%|
Top Percentages (Handle)
Team, Spread, % of Handle
On DraftKings Sportsbook, there are four games that currently have over 90% of the betting handle on the spread. All four are favorites.
Unsurprisingly, the Colts have a massive cut of the handle this week against the Broncos, as the spread is less than a touchdown. The Colts are at home, and are one of the better teams in the AFC at 4-2. The Broncos have struggled offensively, and just traded away Emmanuel Sanders (with others rumored to be on the way out). The Colts are 4-1-1 ATS this season, and Denver is 3-4 and now on the road. This is not a surprising number.
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles is a 13.5-point favorite, which is a huge number. With that being said, it’s at home against the Bengals who have yet to win a game. The Rams are expected to score a ton of points against Cincinnati this weekend, but there is an interesting piece of information that makes this handle a tad surprising. The Bengals are 0-7 this season, but they are 3-4 ATS. A 13.5-point spread is a huge one in the NFL, especially given that the Rams have not been as dominant as in years past. The Rams are 5-2 ATS, but DraftKings Sportsbook is hoping for 5-3 after seeing 95% of the handle on the Rams.
New England Patriots
Another week, another huge handle on the Pats. New England is -13-point favorites and has 92% of the handle placed on them so far. The Browns travel to Massachusetts looking to give the Pats their first loss, but it is unlikely to happen this week. The Patriots are 5-2 ATS, and have had some massive spreads so far this season. The 2-4 Browns are also 2-4 ATS, and a struggling Baker Mayfield against the genius of Bill Belichick’s defensive scheme is not recipe for success. Bettors at DraftKing Sportsbook certainly feel that way.
Green Bay Packers
This is quite the interesting set of data, as the Packers are -4.5 against the Chiefs in Kansas City. We all know why there is a huge handle on the Packers, because Patrick Mahomes is not expected to play.
But, news on Wednesday said that Mahomes was back at practice?! If that is true and he actually practiced, this handle will come down drastically. Keep an eye on this line throughout the week, and certainly on Mahomes’ status. But if he does not play, it’s Aaron Rodgers against Matt Moore. Advantage, Packers.
Top Percentages (Bets)
Team, Spread, % of Bets
|Team||Spread||% Handle||% Bets|
Three of the three games with more than 90% of the handle also have 88% or more of the total bets. The Colts, Packers, and Rams have been heavily bet on this week at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The one team missing from the above four with over 90% of the handle is the Patriots. 83% of the bets came in on the Pats, but a massive 92% of the money. Someone is betting huge on the Patriots, and likely for good reason given the struggles of the Browns combined with just how good the Patriots’ defense has been this season.
Again, keep an eye on the Packers and Chiefs this week with the news of Mahomes being spotted at practice. If he somehow plays on Sunday, that changes everything.
There are only three underdogs that have the majority of the bets on them this week.
Chargers +4.5 68%
Dolphins +14.5 64%
Bucs +2.5 56%
All three of these underdogs have the majority of the handle on them as well.
Dolphins +14.5 89%
Bucs +2.5 59%
Chargers +4.5 58%
NJ SPORTS BETTING APPS
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