Leading the way is BetStars NJ offering odds on which player will be the Home Run Champ in 2019? To the surprise of no one, two NY Yankees sit at atop the odds board.
Giancarlo Stanton at 7/1 odds and Aaron Judge 11/1 are the top favorites to lead MLB in HR’s for the 2019 season. Steve Buchanan provides a preview of who sports bettors may want to wager on for the best ROI.
Giancarlo Staton 7/1
In his first year as a New York Yankee, Staton took a major step back in the home run department. After belting a career-high 59 home runs as a member of the Marlins in 2017, he’d go on to hit “only” 38 in his first run through the American League with the Yankees. While some regression was expected moving to the AL, he should be looking at a big bounce back here in 2019, especially with the power.
What really benefits Stanton is the ballparks he will most frequent. As we all know, the AL East features Yankee Stadium, Fenway Park, Camden Yards, Rogers Centre and Tropicana Field. When it comes to Park Factors, which measures if a particular statistic favors hitters or pitchers more, Yankee Stadium, Rogers Centre and Camden Yards were all in the top 10 for home runs allowed.
With his second go around in the American League and a lineup that will allow Stanton to see plenty of pitches once again – he’s one of the safest bets to walk away as king of the home runs for the 2019 season.
Home Run Champ Betting Odds 2019
|Giancarlo Stanton 7/1||Aaron Judge 11/1|
|Khris Davis 14/1||Mike Trout 16/1|
|JD Martinez 18/1||Joey Gallo 20/1|
|Bryce Harper 22/1||Nolan Arenado 25/1|
|Matt Olson 30/1||Nelson Cruz 33/1|
|Rhys Hoskins 40/1||Manny Machado 40/1|
|Edwin Encarnacion 45/1||Francisco Lindor 50/1|
|Kris Bryant 50/1||Anthony Rizzo 50/1|
|Mookie Betts 60/1||Gary Sanchez 60/1|
|Kyle Schwarber 60/1||Trevor Story 66/1|
|Jesus Aguilar 66/1||Cody Bellinger 66/1|
|Juan Soto 66/1||Alex Bregman 66/1|
|Ronald Acuna Jr 70/1||Mike Moustakas 70/1|
|Justin Upton 70/1||Jose Ramirez 70/1|
|George Springer 75/1||Christian Yelich 75/1|
|Paul Goldschmidt 80/1||Javier Baez 80/1|
|Eugenio Suarez 80/1||Marcell Ozuna 80/1|
|Charlie Blackmon 80/1||Josh Donaldson 80/1|
|Jose Abreu 80/1||Shohei Ohtani 90/1|
|Freddie Freeman 90/1||Carlos Correa 90/1|
|Hunter Renfroe 100/1||Michael Conforto 100/1|
|Carlos Santana 100/1||Yasiel Puig 100/1|
|Vladimir Guerrero Jr 110/1||Travis Shaw 110/1|
|Matt Chapman 125/1||Corey Seager 125/1|
|Anthony Rendon 125/1||Max Muncy 200/1|
Khris Davis 14/1
Last year, Davis led all of baseball with 48 home runs, beating out J.D. Martinez of the Boston Red Sox by five. You’re getting good odds on a repeat performance at 14:1, but what are the realistic chances Davis can do so?
When people think of Davis, they likely think about his power. However, one word that isn’t used around Davis and should is consistent. In his first full season back in 2014, Davis has played in no less than 121 games while hitting at least 22 home runs. Since joining the Athletics, he’s hit at least 42 home runs in three straight seasons while logging at least 150 games.
Over the past three seasons, 11 players have hit at least 40 home runs. Of those 11 players, Davis, Joey Gallo and J.D. Martinez are the only three to appear on that list at least twice. Regardless of the unfavorable parks that Davis frequents, the odds are almost too good to pass up for someone who consistently hits for the power that he does.
Joey Gallo 20/1
All Gallo does is hit fly balls. Looking back at the 2018 players with at least 100 at-bats under their belt, Gallo ranked fifth in the league in FB% (fly ball percentage) at 49.8%. Taking that even further, of the fly balls that Gallo hit, 27.6% of them would go on for home runs, which ranked 10th in the league last season.
I would have no issues with taking Gallo at these odds because he’s a proven home run hitter that calls Globe Life Park home. Of the 81 home runs he’s hit over the last two seasons, 45 of those came at home. Once again, at these odds, you’re getting a player that has a legitimate shot of hitting over 40 home runs, which would put them right in the running to lead the league.
Nolan Arenado 25/1
I was surprised to see Arenado at 25/1 odds. For someone that plays half of their games at Coors Field, you’d think these odds would look a bit different. Nonetheless, I think we have some tremendous value for someone who belted 38 bombs in 2018.
Like Davis, Arenado doesn’t miss much time. He’s played in at least 111 games since 2013 and over the last three years has missed only 11 games total. Over that three year span, Arenado has hit at least 37 home runs and topped the 40 mark in 2016 with 41. While his FB% took a dive from 45% in 2017 to 38.8% in 2018, his HR/FB ratio jumped from 16.3% to 20.7%. While he very well could be one to those “close, but no cigar” plays, he should be in contention all the way until the end of the season.
Christian Yelich 75/1
Finally, we have the long shot that perked my interest. For someone that hit 36 home runs last season, these odds seem to be way off, right?
Diving into the numbers, Yelich’s 2018 season was off the charts. Prior to hitting his 36 home runs, he never hit more than 21, a feat he accomplished in 2016. His HR/FB ratio took a massive jump as well, skyrocketing from his previous season high of 23.6% in 2016 to 35% in 2018. While these are great and all, it’s hard to tab him for another season like this – as the results were so extreme.
While I don’t mind taking Yelich at these odds, this is something I would take on small bets, as the return would be well worth the investment. However, the consensus is that Yelich will see some regression this season – an argument I would tend to agree with. Nonetheless, the ROI would certainly be one to salivate over if he proves everyone wrong.
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