The entire betting public wants to know who everyone else is betting on. That is how sharp bettors gain an edge.
Let’s take a look at who the public is on for Week 5 of the NFL at William Hill US sportsbooks.
NFL Week 5 Public Betting Percentages
|Matchup||Spread (as of 10/3)||Total (as of 10/3)||% of Total Tickets||% of Dollars Bet|
|Patriots vs Redskins||NE -15.5||42.5||91% Patriots||84% Patriots|
|Cardinals vs Bengals||CIN -3||47||83% Cardinals||90% Cardinals|
|Bears vs Raiders||CHI -5.5||40.5||77% Bears||66% Bears|
|Broncos vs Chargers||LAC -6.5||44.5||69% Chargers||82% Broncos|
|Colts vs Chiefs||KC -11||56||68% Chiefs||56% Colts|
|Packers vs Cowboys||DAL -3.5||47||64% Packers||81% Packers|
|Jaguars vs Panthers||CAR -3.5||41||64% Jaguars||77% Jaguars|
|Buccaneers vs Saints||NO -3||46.5||63% Saints||66% Buccaneers|
|Falcons vs Texans||HOU -5||49||62% Texans||74% Texans|
|Bills vs Titans||TEN -3||38.5||60% Bills||67% Titans|
|Ravens vs Steelers||BAL -3||44.5||56% Ravens||70% Steelers|
|Jets vs Eagles||PHI -14||43.5||54% Jets||52% Jets|
|Vikings vs Giants||MIN -5||43.5||53% Vikings||78% Vikings|
|Browns vs 49ers||SF -3.5||46.5||53% 49ers||76% 49ers|
Compared to previous weeks, Week 5 is all over the place. There are only three games with more than 70% of the tickets. Patriots, Cardinals, and Bears are the only three.
In addition, there are plenty of underdogs with significant numbers against them. For a week with only three games having more than a touchdown spread, it’s very odd to see the discrepancies. The Patriots are 15.5-point favorites and have 91% of the tickets on them. The Chiefs are -11, and have 68% of the tickets on them. The Eagles are -14, but their opponent (Jets) has 54% of the tickets. Crazy week for William Hill numbers so far. Let’s dive a bit deeper into it.
Top Ticket Bets NFL Week 5
Team, Spread, % of Tickets
Patriots -15.5 91%
Another week, another huge number on the Patriots. 91% of the tickets have come on them at -15.5 to beat the Redskins. This is not a shock however, as it is late in the week and the Redskins still have not named a starting quarterback and news has released that Jay Gruden did not want to draft Dwayne Haskins.
What a great organizational structure they have in Washington, look for the Patriots to roll. That explains the 91% on a massive 15.5 points.
Cardinals +3 83%
The betting public flat out does not like the Bengals. The Arizona Cardinals have not won a game, and are traveling east. The public still has placed 83% of the tickets on the Cardinals as underdogs to beat the Bengals in Cincinnati. Is this finally the week the Cardinals offense goes off? Possibly. The Bengals‘ MNF performance was the likely swing in this set of numbers, as the Steelers embarrassed them in prime time. In what oddly could be one of the worst matchups this season, it will end up being one of the biggest for William Hill given the numbers on the Cardinals.
Bears -5.5 77%
It is not often that a team with a backup quarterback is favored by 5.5 points. It is even more rare that the team with a backup quarterback at -5.5 points has 77% of the tickets against them. What does that say about the Raiders? The public does not like them. Khalil Mack revenge game? Is Mitch Trubisky worse off for this team than Chase Daniel?
It has to be something, but the Bears are one of only three teams with more than 70% of the tickets on them in Week 5.
Top Money Bets Week 5
Team, Spread, % of Money
Cardinals +3 90%
To add to the craziness, the public has 90% of their money on the Cardinals as three-point dogs this week in Cincinnati. This is an amazing development, but it shows you just how poor the public thinks the Bengals are. William Hill is definitely pulling for the Bengals here.
Patriots -15.5 84%
It has become a staple that a very large set of money comes in on the Patriots, but it is 7% less than the total tickets. This likely means someone put a large bet on the Redskins to cover. Dan Snyder maybe?
In all seriousness, this is a huge number (again) on the Pats. Look for WH to be rooting against them. Again.
Broncos +6.5 82%
This may be the weirdest set of numbers of the week. The Broncos have a massive 82% of the money coming on on them at +6.5, but the total tickets is set at 69% Chargers. This means a ton of money has likely come in on the Broncos. Let’s think about it this way.
Let us say there is $1000 on this game, and 100 tickets. On average, a $10 ticket. This means that 69 tickets have been bet on the Chargers. This also means that 31 tickets have come in on the Broncos, but for a total of $820.
Broncos – 31 tickets for $820 for an average of $26.45
Chargers – 69 tickets for $180 for an average of $2.61
This is insane. This means on average, for every $1 that comes in on the Chargers, $10 is coming in on the Broncos. But, for every seven tickets on the Chargers, there are only three tickets on the Broncos.
This means someone (or a select few) has been a large sum on the Broncos at +6.5. Keep an eye on this game, and any movement leading up to kickoff. We know William Hill will be.