PointsBet NJ has an interesting win prop bet involving both MLB teams in New York. The odds are currently set at the Mets at +11.5 and the Yankees at -11.5. Could the Mets actually cover in this spot? Or will the Yankees run away with this? Let’s take a look. No other NJ online sportsbooks are offering a bet like this.
Yankees -11.5 Wins Over NY Mets
For this to hit, we’d need the Yankees to have 12 more wins than the Mets. Easy, right? Well, judging by last year’s record it’s a no brainer. The Yankees ended the 100 wins, as they were one of three teams to reach the century mark. As for the Mets, they ended with 77, so a difference of 23 wins. What are the chances the Yankees could stave off the Mets from closing that gap?
The Yankees improved vastly from last season as if it was even possible. They helped bolster their rotation with the addition of James Paxton, an 11 game winner with the Mariners. They’ve also made major strides in their bullpen with the addition of Adam Ottavino, who produced a 0.99 WHIP and 12.9 K/9 through 77.2 innings with the Rockies. A healthy (for now) Troy Tulowitzki will also man shortstop until Didi Gregorius returns, giving them power all throughout the lineup.
Currently, the Yankees are projected at 96.5 wins. With all things considered, it’s a number that feels extremely obtainable. Their bullpen alone boasts one of the best in the entire league and could help alleviate the need for their starters to go deep, especially in the early months of the season. This is going to be a tough team to topple so the 96.5 wins is one I wouldn’t be looking to take the under on.
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Mets +11.5 Wins vs. NY Yankees
To win this, we’d need the Mets to have more wins outright (yikes) or be within 11.5. As I mentioned earlier, these teams were separated by 23 wins, which is quite the gap. However, we have a much more improved Mets team heading into the 2019 season. Let’s start with the lineup they’ll be looking to roll out.
The Mets have improved with their power. The additions of Robinson Cano and Wilson Ramos will certainly help. The icing on the cake would be if Brandon Nimmo can sustain his newfound power from 2018, as he belted 17 home runs. No matter how you slice it, the Mets lineup is much better than it was last year and should help them win more ballgames this year. Ranked 23rd in runs last season and averaging 4.1 runs – it’s a number they should easily surpass.
Pitching remains the same for the Mets. Their top three starters have a very high ceiling consisting of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Zach Wheeler. We all know deGrom EASILY put the Mets in position to win way more than 10 games last year. 28 quality starts paints the entire picture here. With that in mind, the Mets have a very powerful top three starters that should help lead them to surpass their win total from last year.
MY PICK:
In conclusion, I think the Mets will be a much better team in 2019. They easily could be in the running in the NL East well into the dog days of summer but still don’t have enough to overcome the Bryce Harper led Phillies. Personally, I think the Mets can easily win around 82-85 games this season. It puts them close enough to be within that 11.5 magic number, but I don’t think they’ll make it. I think it will be a lot closer than people will think, but not enough, not just yet.
Result: Yankees -11.5
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